The Battle for One Elect

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After all, Tymoshenko, who was knocked out in the first round of the presidential elections, dreams of parliamentary revenge and of reclaiming the post of prime minister. Another option is to dissolve the Rada by calling early parliamentary elections.

This plan may appeal to Zelensky, as it would pull the rug out from underneath his opponents before they have had chance to recover from his triumph, and enable him to try to forge his own majority his party, also named Servant of the People, is leading the polls and can count on getting a third of the vote , in order to be in a strong negotiating position before the autumn, when the first signs of inevitable disappointment are bound to appear. Kolomoisky is bent on revenge against his political foe Poroshenko, and would also like a say in running the country.

Admittedly, the oligarch has so far wisely refrained from pulling the strings. That situation is hardly likely to suit the new president, and Zelensky may well be tempted to put the ambitious Kolomoisky in his place once and for all.

Polls show election win an uphill battle for Coalition | Australia news | The Guardian

Moscow, which backs separatists in the region, is ready with both stick and carrot: with one hand, the Kremlin is demonstrating cautious benevolence toward the new president, while with the other banning the export of oil products to Ukraine and threatening to issue Russian passports to residents of the breakaway Donbass regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. The Kremlin must also decide what to do about the problem of the bad example set by Zelensky in vilifying the old elites, establishing a dangerous precedent for other former Soviet countries in doing so.

The West, meanwhile, currently views Zelensky with suspicion, which will complicate his plans to expand talks on the peace process in Ukraine and relaunch the Minsk peace agreement, in which European countries played a crucial role. Ukrainian society is tired of the war, but is clearly not prepared to make drastic concessions.

In addition, watching vigilantly for the slightest sign of any betrayal to the cause will be the defeated party of war led by Poroshenko.

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Whether consciously or intuitively, Zelensky deftly harnessed the huge demand for the normalization of Ukraine, and a midway path between East and West, and between Russian and Ukrainian culture. Fortunately for Zelensky, as a showman, he is used to working for ratings.

Carnegie Moscow Center. Sign up for Carnegie Email. Experts Publications Events. Experts Publications. Experten Publikationen. Last year's vote had granted Erdogan expanded authority over the parliament and judiciary. The economic recession is another factor that threatens the ruling party's grip on key cities like Istanbul and Ankara.

Victory for Zelensky in Ukraine — But the Real Battle Starts Now

One-in-five young people are unemployed. This has led Erdogan to declare war on food inflation by turning to unconventional methods to cut prices.

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That slide came after the government directed Turkish banks to withhold lira liquidity in order to defend the currency ahead of the elections. Voters are set to elect their mayors and local officials in 81 municipalities. Currently, 49 out of 81 municipalities are governed by Erdogan's AKP. In addition to mayors, 57 million registered voters will elect members of councils and neighbourhood heads for a five-year term.

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These elections are also the first since President Erdogan took over as head of the new presidential system that came into effect last year, turning into a sort of referendum on his presidency. Izmir, Adana, Bursa, Ankara and Istanbul, the largest cities in the country, are the arena of a fierce battle between AKP and an alliance of opposition parties.

Istanbul and Ankara, in particular, are regarded as essential for the ruling party to retain.