April 9, Countering Criminal Violence in Central America PDF By Michael Shifter This report, published by the Council on Foreign Relations' Center for Preventive Action, explores the causes and consequences of the violence faced by Central American countries and examines the national, regional, and international efforts aimed at reducing its worst effects.
It identifies US interests involved in the deteriorating situation and offers policymakers a set of key recommendations to enhance regional cooperation and be more effective in tackling shared security challenges. And important gains, including the reduction of poverty in South America, remain precarious. In assessing the status of citizen security in Latin America, this study briefly presents and discusses some of them—namely, homicide, which indicates levels of violence; victimization, which is an expression of the intensity of crimes against property; perceptions of insecurity, which refer to the level of fear in the face of criminal activities; confidence in the police agencies responsible for preventing and investigating crime; and the state of the prison system.
The authors provide estimates of the volume, composition, and characteristics of Chinese lending to the region since , offer comparisons to international and Western lending institutions, and examine some commonly held notions about Chinese loans to LAC. The report lends credence to some of these claims, but less so to others. These include claims that China's loans have less favorable terms than those of international financial institutions IFIs and Western banks, that Chinese lending carries few policy conditions, and that Chinese lenders impose less stringent environmental guidelines than their Western counterparts.
Progress, however, is not uniform across the region, which remains impoverished and unequal with many education and health deficiencies. This paper will highlight progress and specific challenges in making progress toward the Millennium Development Goals, and recommend action to reduce poverty and inequality and promote education and health. In the three decades between and , some 4 million people a year in Latin America, on average, were disaster victims. Some lost their lives. Others endured injuries, property damage, and loss of income and jobs. The region suffered three-quarters of all disaster-related deaths worldwide, largely due to the Haitian earthquake, with its toll of some , lives.
As climate change accelerates, the frequency and intensity of natural disasters are likely to escalate further worldwide. The scientific evidence suggests that Latin America and the Caribbean will experience an increasing number of major disasters in the coming years. Crime and public safety was the top issue in 11 of the 18 countries polled.
All of the essays review progress that has been made over the course of a single decade—in most cases, from to They provide essential background and are highly germane to the fundamental challenges and opportunities facing the Western Hemisphere in the second decade of the twenty-first century. August 4, Measuring Up? Ganimian and Alexandra Solano Rocha This document presents a brief analysis of how Latin America and the Caribbean countries performed on the Programme for International Student Assessment PISA —an achievement test administered by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD every three years since that assesses what year-olds know and can do in reading, math and science.
A long-time member and currently visiting senior fellow of the Inter-American Dialogue, Bitar served as senator as well as minister of energy and mines, education, and public works in three separate administrations in Chile. His sophisticated and wide-ranging perspective about the present moment and opportunity for relations between the United States and Latin America merits public dissemination and spirited discussion. This report is one of the critical products of that initiative. It offers six proposals to set the stage for a thorough rethinking of the US and global approach toward illicit drugs.
September 30, Is there a match among migrants, remittances, and technology? Focusing on migrant's ability and willingness to adopt new technology, and the supply of technology-based applications, the report finds much room for increased efficiencies in the marketplace. The paper examines the debate over incumbent re-election and removal of term limits in the Andean region. Specifically, Penfold seeks to reconcile the tasks of implementing far-reaching social and political change through maintaining power with the risks that consecutive re-election can pose to democratic governance.
August 5, Overcoming Inertia? English and Portuguese. Of the seventeen countries for which comparable data is available, twelve experienced a decline since in particular. Through in-depth analyses of Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Peru, this book is among the first attempts to understand why inequality has fallen in Latin America since Particular attention was paid to the rule of law and the Inter-American Democratic Charter. May 6, Remittances and development: financial literacy in an international perspective PDF By Manuel Orozco, Elisabeth Burgess, Nancy Castillo and Landen Romei This draft paper presents an analysis and the results of fieldwork in the area of financial education as a tool to convert remittance clients into bank clients.
April 30, Skilled Diasporas: an imagined or real community? PDF By Manuel Orozco and Mariellen Jewers This paper provides a roadmap to understand the issues that shape what is referred to as skilled diasporas and their practices with development. The analysis problematizes the idea of the skilled diasporas as agents of knowledge transfer and offers practical policy strategies to link these groups to possible knowledge transfer mechanisms as development tool.
To that effect, practical policy considerations are important to keep in place. March 20, Migration, remittances and assets in Bangladesh: Considerations about their intersection and development policy recommendations PDF By Manuel Orozco This report presents an analysis of the results of a survey conducted on more than 10, households in Bangladesh.
The study shows relevant information that can enhance the conditions of people who migrate and search for greater opportunities to achieve development. March 3, Violence and Impunity: Protecting Journalists in Colombia and Mexico PDF By Inter-American Dialogue In the Dialogue convened two private conferences, one in Colombia and one in Mexico, designed to develop a greater sense of urgency about crimes against journalists; strengthen communication between the media and government officials charged with defending journalists; and devise a set of recommendations regarding the investigation and prosecution of violence against journalists.
This report is the product of those two meetings. Participants included leading policy analysts from a dozen countries of Latin America, and from the United States and Spain.
It compares the participating countries in terms of average scores; high and low achieving students; and differences in performance by gender, place of residence and GDP per capita. August 10, Understanding the continuing effect of the economic crisis on remittances to Latin America and the Caribbean PDF By Manuel Orozco This report presents fieldwork research and results of a nationwide survey of Latin American and Caribbean migrants on how the economic crisis is affecting their economic situation and their ability to send remittances.
We explore the extent to which these economies effectively absorb remittances into their productive base and the response of the local governments to these realities. Th e global is local: remittances go to a myriad of places outside capitals and large cities. The paper examines the debate over corruption in the Andes and uses examples from all five Andean countries to assess corruption's effect on political stability and democratic viability.
The two discussed the political crisis in Honduras, paying special attention to the role of the OAS in the events that transpired over the past several weeks. It is the first in a series of videos to be released on Mexico. May 13, Mexico: A safe vessel or a risky wreck in turbulent waters? Moreover, the study shows that in , as the crisis worsens, migrants will reduce their flows by as much as 7 percent due to job losses, lower earnings, and slower migration including continued deportations.
This decline is far less damaging than that expected from exports, yet not negligible. The study is based on an analysis of the impact of the economic downturn on family remittances and the subsequent effect that such an impact is expected to have on the Latin American economies. By agreement with the authors and original publishers, the articles provided for free downloading here will be available for one year, until March At that time we will reassess whether the anthology should and can be continued and, if so, in what form.
Readers of this anthology are encouraged to download the articles provided for personal and educational use. March 23, A Second Chance: U. Policy in the Americas," and its recommendations for a new U. March 10, A Second Chance: U. This brief paper presents the results of two random surveys conducted on Cubans in the United States and in Cuba about migration, remittances and ownership of financial assets. The findings are also compared with a previous survey conducted in and point to a trend of change and continuity.
The pronounced asymmetries experienced by different racial groups in terms of their access to and persistence in the Brazilian education system are already well recognized. This report focuses on the premise that educational indicators for whites and blacks are notably and consistently different, overwhelmingly favoring the former group. February 21, Emerging markets for Rwanda: remittance transfers, its marketplace and financial intermediation PDF By Manuel Orozco This report presents the results of fieldwork analysis on patterns of remittance transfers to Rwanda.
The preliminary findings show significant uncertainty about the inflow of money coming into the country from migrants to their families because of relatively limited statistical information, few if none estimates or studies on remittances and diffusiveness of the status of Rwandans abroad. The conference was specifi cally concerned with four issues: government laws and regulations regarding the media, concentration of media ownership, indirect censorship, and the nexus of media responsibility and the quality of democracy.
The goals have been to advance legislation guaranteeing access to information, share information among advocates and practitioners, and support region-wide efforts to influence Organization of American States OAS resolutions on the issue. The study is the first of its kind and is based on a nationwide survey of individuals from twelve nationalities and interviews with nearly fifty ethnic stores supplying home country goods to migrant populations. The results of the study show that migrants manifest a solid demand that looks for quality and product selection, and relies on a network of stores and importers to satisfy those needs.
This demand reflects realities of community building, identity and transnational links. Moreover, the presence of ethnic stores operating across inner city neighborhoods emerge as the interface of global economic links, connecting identity with necessity by selling those products demanded by migrants.
Erikson There are few international relationships that rival in intimacy, passion, and sheer tension that between the Cuba and the United States. In The Cuba Wars, Cuba expert Daniel Erikson draws on extensive visits to Cuba and conversations with both government officials and opposition leaders—plus the key players in Washington and Florida—to offer an unmatched portrait of a small country with very large importance to America.
Agency for International Development This report is a study on the demand for nostalgic goods and the ways in which local ethnic stores support that demand. It emphasizes clarifying and strengthening the role of the state—and of key non-state actors—in education. It begins with a summary of current education conditions and recent developments, and ends with a discussion of what the state and other actors might do to help ensure that education begins to meet the needs of the Haitian population.
Agency for International Development, September, This briefing offers practical guidelines and observations about survey data collection on remittances and how this data informs thinking on migration and development policy making. Obtaining accurate data on the volume of migrant remittances flows is notoriously difficult, as many remittances transfers still occur informally and even when funds are transferred through official channels—such as bank accounts, the internet, paid cards or phones—the mechanisms for measuring these flows are weak.
However, the volume of remittances transfers and awareness of the importance of remittances to poverty reduction have grown over the last decade and donors and organizations specializing in migration-related issues have increasingly supported efforts to improve remittances-related information. These thoughtful essays, which concur in some respects and diverge in others, provide important insights about where the Correa administration might be headed.
The idea is a collective effort to set common standards for reducing specific barriers to domestic and foreign investment, similar to standards set in trade agreements for lowering trade barriers. Gray sheds light on the sources of the political stalemate in advance of the August 10 recall referendum and outlines three scenarios for Bolivian politics in the period to follow. The study seeks to understand why some school systems perform better than others, and why some educational reforms succeed when others fail.
The defining elements of its political history, however, have been darkness, violence, and exclusion. Erikson and Joyce Lawrence In recent years, the small economies of the Caribbean have entered a time of extraordinary economic uncertainty, as traditional industries face new challenges amid a fiercely competitive global environment. The process of globalization over the past few decades has had a profound effect on developing countries worldwide, and the Caribbean has been no exception.
Moreover, it also attempts to look at the socio-economic profile of this population including attention to their health condition. It is aimed at policymakers in the field of education, teachers, academics, business people, members of trade unions and social organizations, and those working in financial agencies and the media. It seeks to contribute to the debate on standardized testing in education systems and to decisions made in that regard.
February 1, Toward the Mainstream: current trends and dynamics of remittances to Latin America and the Caribbean PDF By Manuel Orozco This paper seeks to point out to four key issues related to the current trends of money transfers: the problems of lack of banking access despite a demand for financial services, lessons learned when financial intermediation exists, current dynamics in the remittance environment, including problems with account closings.
Remittance transfers are one of the manifestations of contemporary transnational family ties and foreign labor mobility. With appropriate policy tools the impact of these flows will have potential development implications in the countries where these flows are arriving and can help mitigate any new challenges. It is high time for leaders in government, business, and civil society in Latin America to embrace fairness as a fundamental goal. Latin America has undertaken one set of changes in order to develop more open and competitive market economies.
The benefits of that first step now need to be complemented and reinforced by a second set of changes—changes aimed at fairness and at emphasizing jobs and access to key productive assets for the silent majority. Long-standing inequality in the region has fostered a deep sense of unfairness and injustice. We hope that our agenda rekindles hope that open markets and democratic institutions will, finally, make a difference.
January 1, Women in the Americas: Paths to Political Power PDF By Inter-American Dialogue, Inter-American Development Bank, League of Women Voters A group of women political leaders from across the Americas met in Washington on March 28, to discuss the dramatic advances achieved by women seeking public office in the past ten years—and the special challenges currently facing women in electoral politics. The study shows that Ghanaians are an active community engaged with their home country. This community exhibits incomes relatively lower and younger than native born Dutch.
Haiti's recent progress is real and profound, but it is jeopardized by continued institutional dysfunction, including the government's inexperience in working with Parliament. There is an urgent need to create jobs, attract investment, overhaul and expand access to basic social services, and achieve tangible signs of economic recovery. Now that the United Nations has extended its peacekeeping mandate until October , the international community must seek ways to expand the Haitian state's capacity to absorb development aid and improve the welfare of the population. The alternative could be dangerous backsliding.
Not since President Kennedy launched his Alliance for Progress in has social development been the centerpiece of U. This brief describes the political risks poverty and inequality pose for the region and the hemisphere, including the United States, and lays out a practical agenda for U. This report provides an analysis of the relationship between remittances and the local economies in Central America, with special attention to Nicaragua and Guatemala. Based on time series quarterly data and nationwide surveys, the report looks at the impact of remittances on growth, exchange rates and savings in Central America.
The report also provides some policy recommendations to leverage and mitigate the impact of remittances. It analyzes the cost-benefit ratio of each type of testing compared to results on student achievement. It describes the trends, emphases, and implications of the learning standards currently being established and implemented in Latin America.
Although the cost of sending remittances has decreased sharply over the last several years, further reductions can and should be achieved. Another challenge is to turn remittance senders and recipients into bank customers. Without changing the private and voluntary nature of remittance transfers, governments can create productive opportunities for their use. Finally, understanding the macroeconomic effects of remittances is essential in developing appropriate incentives to increase their contribution to national development.
English and Spanish.
American Latino Theme Study
This memorandum summarizes the day-long discussion. The report, by Michael Shifter, vice-president for policy at the Dialogue, offers ten guidelines to help U. The monograph also presents analysis of internal Venezuelan issues such as the growing military role in politics, the moves towards nationalization, and efforts to restrict press freedom. The document covers changes since the El Salvador Report Card. January 9, Leveraging Efforts on Remittances and Financial Intermediation PDF By Manuel Orozco; Rachel Fedewa This report seeks to analyze the efforts among financial institutions to leverage the relationship between financial intermediation and remittance transfers.
The targets include cutting by half the percentage of persons living on less than one dollar a day, providing every child with a primary education, reducing child mortality by two-thirds, slashing maternal mortality by three-quarters, and halving the number of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water. The document systematizes existing research to draw conclusions that will be useful to researchers and policy makers. Instead, he recommends that the government expand its current focus and pursue a more ambitious strategy in the rural sector, including promoting alternative crops, ending fumigation, voluntary relocation, and youth programs.
It offers the best information available on aspects of education—access, quality, and equity—that are crucial to improving learning. Also available in Portuguese and Spanish. The document covers changes since the Peru Report Card. October 16, Between a rock and a hard place: Migrant remittance senders, banking access and alternative products PDF By Manuel Orozco Although financial access for immigrants has been a key issue stressed by several institutions, many challenges remain in increasing the ratio of incorporation of foreign born Hispanics into banking and depository institutions or alternative electronic payment systems.
This paper is the result of a study identifying the extent of banking access and penetration among migrant remittance senders; it explores the determinants of banking access, challenges to bringing Latinos into financial institutions, and the challenges of use of alternative payment mechanisms to provide financial services to migrants.
The paper looks at best practices while it analyzes supply and demand solutions to issues of low access to banking institutions. Also available in English and Spanish. Together, these papers provide an overview of the personal and professional characteristics in seven Latin American countries Argentina, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Uruguay.
The analysis distinguishes between policy initiatives with broad political support and those that face political resistance because of their impact on powerful interest groups. One rationale informing this project lies in the fact that the increasing relevance of remittance transfers as an industry for financial payment companies, and the recent emergence of electronic prepaid products, are somewhat converging patterns on the supply and demand for international payment systems.
July 14, Conversando en la Escuela. The project supported and studied the characteristics and lessons that could be learned from six promising school violence prevention programs in Latin America and the Caribbean. June 16, Considerations on diasporas and development PDF By Manuel Orozco As the reality of globalization reaches more people than ever before, the role and impact of diasporas in development are becoming increasingly critical considerations in policy and politics.
The movement of people today is more transnational than at any other time in history, and effective economic integration thus depends on the human links and connections that exist across borders. The same is true for development in that it also demands less territorialized strategies; this is the critical challenge for practitioners and volunteers alike.
The following are some thoughts on the challenges and considerations to keep in mind when looking for opportunities to establish projects and partnerships with diasporas. Summary of recommendations found in this report can be found here. May 10, Diasporas, philanthropy and hometown associations: the Central American experience PDF By Manuel Orozco Although diaspora philanthropic organizing is not a new phenomenon, their projects and interests in local community development have spread out through the visible activism of hometown associations.
He argues that unless political elites undertake serious military reform, democracy and civil-military relations will deteriorate, heightening instability in the Andean region.
March 2, Gender and remittances: Preliminary notes about senders and recipients in Latin America and the Caribbean PDF By Manuel Orozco Within the changing landscape of migration where both men and women are moving across borders, remittance transfers also follow gendered lines. These dynamics are the differences in sex and social practices that signify the presence of prevailing relations hips in the broader context of contemporary transnational migration Ramirez This report looks at the impact of remittances and other economic practices on the Haitian economy, and how to create opportunities to leverage these funds for local development.
March 1, Transnational Families: lives on the edge, but in pursuit of change PDF By Manuel Orozco At the heart of money transfers and their intersection with development is the very human face of family remittances. These flows relate to the social condition of senders and recipients and their struggle to meet the basic needs of their families: the interactions and relationships that occur from senders and recipients of money are part of a family affair of transnational nature.
In this report we explore the extent to which transnational families hold shared understandings of the needs and circumstances in their household. PDF By Nigel Brooke This document looks at the motives behind adopting systematic student assessments as an integral part of education policy in certain states in Brazil. These are experiences that simultaneously integrate and fragment relationships within and outside territorial boundaries. Immigrants are key protagonists of globalization and emblematic of distant proximities: while their lives are fragmented by the experience of migration which separates them from their families and nations, through their labor mobility, they integrate their home and host countries into the global economy in order to keep their own families together.
The end result is a transnational lifestyle, characterized by both opportunities and hardships that feature this paradox of distance and closeness. The document covers changes since the Honduras Report Card. August 1, Regional Integration? Historically, this region been characterized by fluid migration, but recent economic and other changes have dramatically increased these flows of people and money. Erikson, Adam Minson Haiti has not held an election in five years; today, the country is virtually devoid of elected leaders.
Haiti's nine-member provisional electoral council, which has ultimate authority over the voting process, has established a preliminary timeline for elections. Municipal elections are scheduled for October 9, with a first round of legislative and presidential contests scheduled for November 13, followed by a second round on December Although the provisional electoral council has been criticized for moving too slowly and being ineffectual, the body is generally considered more transparent than its predecessors, some of which were considered overly politicized or complicit in fraud. Still, the electoral council will need to hasten its preparations if elections are to occur on schedule.
Kaufman and Joan M. Nelson This document compares different education reforms in Latin America and draws conclusions regarding how political considerations condition policy output in different countries. The first, written by Michael Shifter, places the policy challenge facing Colombia within a human security framework. The roles played by key actors in the international community in advancing human security goals are discussed.
Montufar reviews the efforts of individual country governments and international organizations and suggests how they could be more effective in addressing the humanitarian and environmental problems arising from the conflict. But it also expresses concern that, without substantial policy and institutional reform, the current economic expansion may be short lived.
The drug problem is particularly serious in Colombia, Bolivia and Peru—the three countries treated in this paper—and has profound and widespread implications for institutions of democratic governance. Gamarra highlights the importance of state capacity in addressing the problem, and argues that the current policy approach is unlikely to succeed in the long term.
He offers some suggestions for improving the effectiveness of drug policy in the region. Kurtenbach points out the key differences in approach and strategy between Europe and the United States, but emphasizes a set of shared goals. She also identifies the prospects for further convergence and collaboration on policy questions such as human rights, drugs, and social development in the coming period of international support to help Colombia move towards an enduring peace. The session was an opportunity for U. What types of education problems can be resolved with standards? What are the arguments in favor of and against standards?
We assembled the task force in response to the growing concerns of our members that U. Our objective was to identify policies and approaches that would enable Washington to take better advantage of the enormous opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation with the governments of the region. The result is a provocative study that combines political and economic analysis to illustrate the detours, obstacles, and alternatives facing countries on the road from communism to capitalism.
The report provides reliable and up-to-date information on progress on key education indicators test results, enrollment, staying in school, equity, accountability, investment in primary and secondary education, the teaching profession, standards, and assessment systems in the Dominican Republic. Tendencias, temas y debates PDF By Denise Vaillant This study provides a panorama of the teaching profession in Latin America, discussing themes, debates, main positions, and research voids in an attempt to identify priorities for education policy.
Winkler and Santiago Cueto This book brings together much of the recent empirical research on the effects of race, ethnicity and gender on educational outcomes in countries with large indigenous or afro-descendent populations. In her introduction to the report, Dialogue vice-chair Carla Hills explains the stakes involved: a successful FTAA could bring opportunity and enhanced prosperity to the region, strengthening hemispheric stability and advancing our economic, social, and security interests.
English, Portuguese, and Spanish. August 1, Constitutional Provisions and Legal Actions Related to Discrimination and Afro-Descendant Populations in Latin America PDF By Inter-American Dialogue A report that showcases legislation that affects Afro-descendants in Latin America and the Caribbean, and discusses the international conventions and accords that governments have signed regarding racism, racial discrimination and social exclusion. Most favored some sort of free trade agreement between the United States and Central America—but many argued that the agreement, as written, lacked sufficient safeguards for labor rights.
June 1, Turning Point in Colombia? The rapporteur's report captures the freewheeling give-and-take among participants on a range of issues related to Colombia's armed conflict, including the government's approach in pursuit of peace and justice. Jawahar acknowledges the important gains made under the Uribe administration in the security area, but also identifies grounds for concern.
It concludes that increased accountability can improve student achievement. Migration and worker remittances, in particular, support economic growth in sending countries all over the world. Through remittances, migration has created new opportunities for social and economic change in rural areas. However, remittances are only part of a broader phenomenon of transnationalism. Transnational immigration networks are contributing to the integration of countries into the global economy, demonstrated through various levels of economic interconnectedness, including immigrantbased donations, small and large investments, trade, tourism, and unilateral transfers.
Overall, however, there are very few studies analyzing these relationships. Neither household nor macro-economic data has been implemented to systematically assess the determinants of remittances which are different to those of migration. Indeed, it is hard to exaggerate their importance. Portuguese and Spanish. And 3 if persons with similar characteristics are paid less when they teach than when they take other jobs, why do they choose the teaching profession?
August 1, Access to Information in the Americas. This paper analyzes the implications of such participation and suggests that international tests may help to improve management and education processes. March 10, Changes in the Atmosphere? Long-term growth prospects for Asia-Pacific are impacted by demographics, slowing productivity growth, and the rise of the digital economy.
A second challenge is slowing productivity growth. Finally, the global economy is becoming increasingly digitalized, and while some recent advances could be truly transformative, they also bring challenges, including those related to the future of work. Asia is embracing the digital revolution, albeit with significant heterogeneity across the region. Chapter 2 analyzes the factors behind low inflation despite strong growth, and how long this is expected to last. The findings highlight that temporary global factors, including imported inflation, have been key drivers of low inflation.
And indeed, in line with an upturn in oil prices over recent months, headline inflation in the region has picked up, while core inflation has remained subdued and below target in many economies. Second, while inflation expectations are generally well anchored to targets, the influence of expectations in driving inflation has declined, as the inflation process has instead become more backward looking. Third, there is some evidence that the sensitivity of inflation to economic slack has diminished—in short, the Phillips curve has flattened.
Inflation in the Asia-Pacific region may increase once global factors, including US inflation and commodity prices, become less favorable, and policymakers should stand ready to act. In addition, higher inflation may persist on account of the increasingly backward-looking inflation process.
And with a flatter Phillips curve, the output cost of disinflating could be higher. Accordingly, policymakers should be vigilant in responding to early signs of inflationary pressure, though the response to commodity price shocks should be to accommodate first- but not second-round effects. Improved monetary policy frameworks and central bank communications could increase the role of expectations in driving inflation and thus make inflation less sticky. More flexible exchange rates could mitigate the role of imported inflation, and macroprudential policies can help address financial stability risks.
With output gaps closing in much of the region, continued fiscal support is less needed, and most economies in Asia should turn to strengthening buffers, increasing resilience, and ensuring sustainability. Some economies should also focus on improving revenue mobilization to create space for infrastructure and social spending and help support structural reforms.
The strong economic outlook makes this an opportune moment to pursue such reforms. Tailored measures are needed to boost productivity and investment, narrow gender gaps in labor force participation, deal with the demographic transition, address climate change, and support those affected by shifts in technology and trade. And finally, to reap the full benefits of the digital revolution, Asia will need a comprehensive and integrated policy response covering information and communications technology, infrastructure, trade, labor markets, and education.
Regional Economic Outlook: Seizing the Momentum
Driven partly by the procyclical tax stimulus in the United States, near-term economic prospects for both the world and Asia have improved from the already-favorable outlook presented in the October Regional Economic Outlook Update: Asia and Pacific. Global growth in was the highest since and is expected to strengthen further in —19, supported by broad-based momentum across countries and fiscal expansion in the United States. Headline inflation has been picking up with the upturn in oil prices since September, but core inflation remains surprisingly subdued, especially in advanced economies.
Asia has been in a sweet spot of strong growth and benign inflation. While GDP growth forecasts for —18 have been repeatedly revised up over the last two years, inflation forecasts have been kept constant or revised down Figure 2. Core inflation remains below inflation targets in many Asian economies Figure 2.
Motivated by these developments, this chapter aims to shed light on the following questions: Why has inflation been low in Asia recently, and how long will it last? What has been the role of import prices and global factors? How well anchored are inflation expectations? To what extent has inflation become less sensitive to economic slack—that is, has the Phillips curve flattened? How do these drivers of inflation in Asia differ from those in other regions? Finally, what are the key implications for policymakers?
To address these questions, the chapter analyzes inflation dynamics relying on a variety of approaches, including estimation of augmented Phillips curves, principal component analysis to distinguish global factors from country-specific factors, and an analysis of trend inflation to shed light on how long low inflation is likely to persist. Looking forward, these findings suggest that inflation may well rise in Asia as commodity prices and other temporary factors reverse themselves the current WEO projects a near-term increase in commodity prices.
Higher inflation in the rest of the world and weaker currencies in the region could pose upside risks to inflation. If such risks materialize, higher inflation may well persist, given the stickiness of the inflation process. And given the relative flatness of the Phillips curve, the output costs of disinflating may be high. Login or Register Information of interest. Asia and Pacific Region Regional Economic Outlook: Asia Pacific May Full Report The world economy continues to perform well, with strong growth and trade, rising but still muted inflation, and accommodative financial conditions, notwithstanding some increased financial market volatility in early Back to Top Executive Summary The economic outlook for Asia and the Pacific remains strong, and the region continues to be the most dynamic of the global economy.