Uncertainties and Limitations in Simulating Tropical Cyclones (Springer Theses)

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Thus, a Gaussian process to represent the stochastic variation of the unresolved subgrid scale in the velocity components may present a more robust recalibration technique. We also thank Dr. Adam Monahan and one anonymous reviewer for their insightful comments and suggestions. However, here we prefer to adopt a somewhat simpler approach for this initial test of concept.

Left-truncated Weibull log likelihood function ll. Function to fit left-truncated Weibull distribution fit. Consider that wind speeds are distributed as a Weibull with and ; then the cumulative distribution function and associated quantile function for p is. Consider also that the transformation of has an exponential distribution Z , such that. Next Article. Previous Article. Mari R. Tye x. Search for articles by this author. David B. Stephenson x. Greg J. Holland x. Box , Boulder, CO E-mail: maritye ucar. View larger version 30K Fig. Estimation of the Weibull parameters.

Image of typeset table. Why are the distribution shapes so different? View larger version 23K Fig.

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Transforming variables to have different Weibull distributions. View larger version 53K Fig. Recalibration of model maximum wind speeds. View larger version 29K Fig. View larger version 13K Fig. View larger version 15K Fig. View larger version 22K Fig. August Share this Article Share. Climate and the Global Famine of —78 times. View larger version 30K. View larger version 23K.

Uncertainties and Limitations in Simulating Tropical Cyclones

View larger version 53K. View larger version 29K. View larger version 13K. View larger version 15K. View larger version 22K. Batts, M. Simiu, and L. Russell, : Hurricane wind speeds in the United States. Google Scholar. Bender, M. Knutson, R. Tuleya, J. Sirutis, G. Vecchi, S. Garner, and I. Held, : Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes.

Benton, T. Gallani, C. Jones, K. Lewis, and R. Tiffin, : Severe weather and UK food chain resilience: Detailed appendix to synthesis report. Government Office for Science, 34 pp. Brown, C. Wilby, : An alternate approach to assessing climate risks. Eos, Trans. Murdock, T. Werner, S. Sobie, and J. Cannon, : Downscaling extremes—An intercomparison of multiple statistical methods for present climate. Coles, S. Springer-Verlag, pp. Collins, W. Conradsen, K. Nielsen, and L. Prahm, : Review of Weibull statistics for estimation of wind speed distributions.

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Emanuel, K. Washington D. Haas, R. Pinto, and K. Born, : Can dynamically downscaled windstorm footprints be improved by observations through a probabilistic approach? Heckert, N. Simiu, and T. Ho, C. Stephenson, M. Collins, C. Ferro, and S. Brown, : Calibration strategies: A source of additional uncertainty in climate change projections. Holland, G. Jagger, T. Elsner, and X. Niu, : A dynamic probability model of hurricane winds in coastal counties of the United States. Justus, C. Hargraves, A. Mikhail, and D. Graber, : Methods for estimating wind speed frequency distributions.

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Brett, : The goodness of fit of the Weibull and Rayleigh distributions to the distributions of observed wind speeds in a topographically diverse area. Curry, and A. Predicting wind components. Weibull, W. Whetton, P.

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Hennessy, J. Clarke, K. McInnes, and D. Kent, : Use of representative climate futures in impact and adaptation assessment. Wilks, D. Done, J. Climatic Change. Giorgi, F.

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Marinucci, G. Bates, and G. Part II: Convective processes and assimilation of lateral boundary conditions. Gray, W. Hodges, K. Knapp, K. Kruk, D. Levinson, H. Diamond, and C. Liang, X. Kunkel, and A. Samel, Development of a regional climate model for U.

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Midwest applications. Part I: Sensitivity to buffer zone treatment. Climate, 14, — Lorenz, E. Simmons, A. Uppala, D. Dee, and S. Skamarock W. Suzuki-Parker, A. Springer Thesis. XIII, 78 pp,. Thorncroft, C.

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